The German newspaper Bild claims that the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are getting ready for what could be as early as February 2024 for a hybrid attack by Russia on NATO eastern flank.
This development comes as tensions between Russia and NATO are rising.
Bild refers to a “Path to Conflict” scenario between Russia and NATO that is detailed in a confidential document from the German Ministry of Defense.
The document lays out a possible sequence of events that could spark a full-scale war and result in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the summer of 2025.
According to the scenario, “Alliance Defense 2025,” It will reportedly start a fresh round of mobilization and bolster its army by 200,000 soldiers. After that, a spring offensive in Ukraine is predicted to occur, with Ukrainian forces expected to retreat by June.
The scenario also indicates that beginning in July, attacks against the West will change from covert to overt, concentrating on cyberattacks and hybrid warfare, with a particular focus on the Baltic states. Russia and Belarus may conduct extensive military drills as a result of these actions.
Given that Russia may send troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad in October, tensions are predicted to rise. The scenario predicts riots and a “border conflict” in the strategically significant Suwalki Corridor by December 2024 in Eastern Europe.
During a pivotal moment in the scenario, when the US is going through a presidential transition, backed by Belarus, may repeat its invasion tactics from 2014 in Ukraine, only this time on soil. By May 2025, NATO is expected to decide on deterrence tactics in response. It would send 300,000 troops, including 30,000 from the Bundeswehr, to the eastern flank on a day they would designate as “Day X.”
The scenario ends thirty days after “day X,” raising the question of whether NATO’s force demonstration would be enough to dissuade Russia.
This concerning situation highlights growing worries within NATO regarding Russia’s military aspirations and the potential for the current conflict in Ukraine to escalate into a larger battle involving forces. The Bild report emphasizes how critical it is for NATO allies to be strategically ready and vigilant in the event of possible aggression.