Avdiivka is being advanced upon by Russian forces, putting Kyiv’s forces in a “critical” situation, as Ukrainian Telegram channels have warned, with the possibility that the town of Donetsk may become the first settlement Moscow has taken over in eight months.
Russia began an attack on the settlement in October of last year because it was seen as a key location in the Kremlin’s plan to take control of the entire southeast Donbas region and as a gateway to the nearby Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.
Despite Russia having lost a great deal of troops and equipment in what Kyiv has referred to as “meat assaults,” assessments on Ukrainian Telegram channels regarding Kyiv’s forces’ chances of retaining the town have been gloomy.
“The situation in the city has become critical,” according to a post made on the Telegram channel Ukraine Fights on Sunday. It also stated that Russian attack aircraft had entered the city from the northeast and that Russian troops had gotten past Ukrainian battle formations and taken up residence in the buildings.
A translation of the post stated, “This means that they are hundreds of meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defenders.” “The fate of Avdiivka is being decided.”
Street fighting was reported on the Butusov Plus Telegram channel in the northern outskirts of Avdiivka, where Russian units had taken up positions less than a mile from the town’s entrance. The 110th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine and its allied forces are engaged in combat with increasing numbers of Russian soldiers who are continually being reinforced.
“The loss would limit Ukraine’s ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbas, and reclaiming the city, given its formidable fortifications, would pose an exceptionally challenging task,” Hartwell stated to Newsweek.
“Russia has invested heavily in the capture of Avdiivka, deploying scores of soldiers and military equipment to the city,” he stated. “The seizure of Avdiivka holds significant political importance for Putin, driven by the urgent need to showcase victories for Russia ahead of the presidential election and a potential new wave of mass mobilization of soldiers.”
Russian forces have advanced east of Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which released a geolocated video from the previous day that showed their advances along the H-20 highway east of the town.
On January 30, Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program, stated on the War on the Rocks podcast that while the situation in and around it was “stable,” it was “trending for the worse in the sense that Russians are making incremental gains.”
“There is a good chance that Avdiivka will eventually be lost,” Kofman stated.
Key Points
- Russian forces are advancing on Avdiivka, putting Kyiv’s forces in a “critical” situation.
- The town was a key location in Russia’s plan to control the southeast Donbas region and a gateway to Donetsk.
- Despite Russia losing troops and equipment in “meat assaults,” Ukrainian Telegram channels have gloomy assessments of Kyiv’s chances of retaining the town.
- Street fighting was reported on the Butusov Plus Telegram channel, with Russian units taking up positions less than a mile from the town’s entrance.
- The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine’s ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbas.
- Russia has invested heavily in the capture of Avdiivka, deploying scores of soldiers and military equipment.
- Russian forces have advanced east of Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
- Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program, stated that the situation in and around Avdiivka is “trending for the worse in the sense that Russians are making incremental gains.”
